tmc-congress-breakup-in-bengal-sets-stage-for-three-cornered-contest-in-india-alliance

The Trinamool Congress's (TMC) decision to contest the Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal independently, breaking away from the INDIA bloc, has opened the door for a three-cornered electoral battle.

 

The move, led by TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee, has created a scenario where the TMC and the BJP are likely to consolidate votes, while the Congress-Left combine becomes a third contender, potentially influencing the dynamics, especially in minority-dominated areas and seats with narrow margins.

 

TMC Supremo Mamata Banerjee's announcement on Wednesday to go solo in the Lok Sabha polls in Bengal came as a blow to the INDIA alliance. The seat-sharing talks between the TMC and Congress fell apart, with the TMC accusing the Congress of making unreasonable demands. According to TMC leaders, they see both advantages and disadvantages in breaking away from the alliance.

 

A TMC leader noted that the Left-Congress alliance could impede the consolidation of anti-TMC votes in favour of the BJP in several constituencies in the southern part of the state. The leader spotlighted the impact of a four-cornered contest in 2019 when the BJP benefited from the division of anti-TMC votes.

 

While a triangular contest might provide opportunities for the BJP, especially if minority votes get divided, it also poses challenges, particularly in minority-dominated seats where the Left-Congress alliance has the potential to sway voters.

 

The saffron party, which gained a 40% vote share significantly in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, has viewed the Left-Congress alliance as lacking credibility as an effective anti-TMC force. 

 

The BJP, which has consistently positioned itself against the TMC, hopes to capitalise on the divisions among opposition parties

 

Despite the potential challenges, TMC leaders express confidence in their strength to counter the BJP in Bengal. The party believes that an alliance with the Congress would have delayed the election process and hindered Banerjee's leadership.

 

The TMC's decision to fight independently comes after the success of the 28-party INDIA alliance, which included the CPI-M led Left Front, Congress, and the TMC. 

 

However, the BJP's campaign emphasised the lack of credibility of the CPI(M) and Congress in west Bengal as effective anti-TMC forces.

 

The political landscape changed after the formation of the INDIA alliance, and the BJP emerged as a strong opposition force, especially after the 2021 assembly polls. 

 

The resurgence of the Left and Congress became evident in subsequent by-polls, with the alliance securing the Sagardighi seat from the TMC in 2023.

 

However, Banerjee's decision to part ways with the alliance has altered the dynamics once again. Both the TMC and BJP see potential gains in the current political scenario. The TMC aims to recreate the 2019 situation, where the BJP gained by securing the entire anti-TMC vote chunk.

 

While the BJP downplays the significance of the INDIA alliance, leaders like Dilip Ghosh emphasise the BJP's consistent fight against the TMC. Senior Congress leader Pradip Bhattacharya sees the TMC-Congress alliance as part of the INDIA bloc as more effective in countering the BJP.

 

The present political scenario sets the stage for a unique electoral battle in West Bengal, where multiple factors will influence voter choices. The TMC hopes to maintain its dominance while the BJP aims to expand its footprint, and the Left-Congress alliance seeks a revival. The outcome will significantly impact the trajectory of West Bengal's political landscape.