The Congress has adopted a careful and cautious approach this time by deciding not to declare any chief ministerial face in Punjab for the next Assembly elections scheduled in February 2027. This is apparently because the last time, in 2022, the party’s approach of projecting then chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi as the chief ministerial face boomeranged.
The Congress did not formally announce Channi as the chief ministerial candidate in 2022, but had clearly “projected” him like that. While in the Dali- dominated Doaba region, his projection as the chief ministerial candidate did yield some dividends and could withhold the Aam Aadmi Party tsunami, in the Jat-dominated Malwa region, it was completely wiped out, winning just one seat of Gidderbaha from where Raja Warring won. Even in the Majha region, the party fared quite badly.
Normally, the Congress does not have a tradition of announcing the chief ministerial candidates. It however does, from time to time, project leaders like that. It did the same thing in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where it projected Bhupesh Baghel, Ashok Gehlot (both sitting) and Kamal Nath, respectively as the chief ministerial faces in 2023. The arrangement did not succeed anywhere. Although it was a combative and an aggressive BJP, which was the reason for the party’s loss in these states, projecting these leaders as chief ministerial faces did not help either.
In Punjab, the Congress is undoubtedly on ascendancy. The ruling AAP is faced with strong anti-incumbency, which is quite normal for any incumbent government in Punjab. The Shiromani Akali Dal is yet to recover from the repeated setbacks and the uncertainty about its alliance with the BJP. This places the Congress in an advantageous position. “Suggesting”, “projecting” or “announcing” the chief ministerial candidate would not make much difference, rather it can have an adverse impact.
Also read: Panthic politics: Too tempting to resist
In the last five consecutive elections in Punjab since 2002, the Congress did project/ announce the chief ministerial candidates and it had a mixed result. In 2002, although Capt Amarinder Singh was “not declared” as the chief ministerial candidate, he was clearly “projected” as such and the party won. In 2007, he was the sitting chief minister and the obvious choice in case the party won. But it lost. In 2012, the party announced him as the chief ministerial candidate at a late stage, just a few days before the elections. The party lost that election again, although in terms of vote share the difference was just around one per cent as compared to the winning Akali-BJP alliance.
In 2017, the Congress made a strategic decision to declare Amarinder as the chief ministerial candidate much ahead of the elections. It was based on the feedback from the IPAC team then headed by Prashant Kishor. The strategy worked, with the Congress scoring an emphatic win on 77 seats. That time it was thought to be the most accurate decision as otherwise, the AAP had made deep inroads into Punjab and had reached within a striking distance. Amarinder did actually make all the difference.
Later, the Congress made an unwise decision, first by side-lining Amarinder and encouraging his bête noir Navjot Singh Sidhu followed by his unceremonious removal as the chief minister in September 2021, less than six months before the next Assembly elections.
In the hindsight, everyone in the Congress realises that decision was suicidal. Had Amarinder not been changed, the party would not have touched its nadir, winning just 18 seats, a loss of 69 seats from 2017 tally. Amarinder and Congress always prove to be a formidable combination and mutually beneficial for each other. Both suffered grave setbacks, as was evident in 2022 after they separated. Amarinder lost from his family bastion Patiala and the Congress lost Punjab very badly.
After Charanjit Singh Channi was dramatically appointed the chief minister replacing Amarinder in September 2021, he was “projected” as the chief ministerial face of the party for 2022 elections. A few months before the elections, one of his nephews was nabbed by the Enforcement Directorate with about Rs 8 crore cash, which did hurt his image and added further to the party’s debacle.
Punjab apparently may not be polarised along the communal or caste lines in sociological terms. But that does not hold true about politics, where caste does count and dominate. That explains the reason why it has always been the dominant Jat caste that gets the chief minister’s position in any and all party governments. The Congress tried to make an exception with Channi and the experiment failed badly.
Also read: BJP must take Punjab seriously
Right now, in the Congress, there are at least five combative contenders for the chief ministerial position in Punjab. They include Charanjit Singh Channi, Partap Singh Bajwa, Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and Rana Gurjeet.
It will be very difficult for the party to make a chief ministerial ‘pick’ ahead of the elections, as it will have a serious fallout. In case the party wins the elections then the job will be easier for the high command as everyone would fall in line.
Ideally, under the Westminster Model that is followed in the states, it is the elected legislators of the party, holding majority, that chose their leader who becomes the chief minister. The elected legislators normally “authorise” the party high command or follow its diktat in choosing the leader. That works well as it prevents the pre-poll factionalism, although it does not guarantee that the post-poll heartburns and disappointments will not happen. But that is manageable once the party is in power.
That explains the Congress’ position of not “declaring” or “projecting” anyone in particular as the chief ministerial candidate for the 2027 Assembly elections and instead having decided to fight the elections under “collective leadership”.
Follow us
