as-of-now-haryana-looks-like-an-open-game

In Haryana, it is going to be an uphill task for the both, ruling Bharatiya Janata Party as well as the opposition Congress. For the Congress, the only hope is the 10-year “anti-incumbency” against the BJP, if it is there. 

 

If the recent parliamentary election results are any indication, the Congress may have improved from its previous performances in 2019 (both assembly as well as parliamentary elections), but it is still not in a position where it can claim a comfortable edge over the BJP. 

 

The Congress won five of the ten seats, while the BJP won the other five, it led from 42 assembly segments against the BJP’s 44, while the AAP led from 4 segments. Also, the Congress had an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party for the parliamentary elections. 

 

But that may not have helped the Congress much, as the AAP is yet to prove its significant and consequential presence across the state. The four assembly segments AAP led from was mainly due to its alliance with the Congress. 

 

Primarily it will again be a contest between the BJP and the Congress this time also. However, with the AAP, the Indian National Lok Dal and the Jan Nayak Janta Party also in the fray, these parties may disturb the expected equations and equilibrium.

 

In the last assembly election in 2019, the Indian National Lok Dal had virtually been wiped out, with the party getting just a single seat. The JJP, which split from the INLD had got ten seats and then aligned with the BJP to form a coalition government. 

 

Every party is going by itself this time. While the BJP and the Congress have a statewide presence in every assembly segment, the INLD and the JJP have limited pockets of influence. The AAP is yet to make its impact in Haryana and it will be difficult how much it will affect the overall outcome.

 

While the Congress will be banking upon the ten years’ anti-incumbency against the BJP, the BJP in turn is expecting the division in the opposition votes. The majority of votes the INLD, the JJP and the AAP will get will be a disadvantage to the Congress and an advantage for the BJP.

 

There is no apparent anti-incumbency against the BJP as such, although there may be ten-year fatigue about the government. But in case the opposition vote gets divided, like it looks at this stage, it will be an advantage for the BJP.

 

At the same time, the BJP is faced with strong opposition from the powerful farming community since it brought three farm laws, which were withdrawn later. However the party has not been able to neutralize the hostile sentiment prevailing among the farming community. 

 

During the last General Elections, the Congress was successful in building up the narrative that the BJP wanted to change the constitution, which in turn will mean doing away with the reservations. The BJP was not able to counter that narrative, as a result, there was a sense of insecurity among those sections who benefited from the reservations. 

 

The BJP will need to work on it this time more vigorously than ever. The sense of insecurity about reservations still prevails. 

 

Although the BJP government’s clear and categorical refusal to do away with the “creamy layer” among the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes, it will need to do more hard work at the ground level to allay fears and apprehensions. 

 

Congress is buoyant and confident after the parliamentary elections with its vote percentage going from 28 to 43 percent. Besides, in the assembly elections, there will be no Modi factor or Ram Mandir issue. The assembly election will be fought entirely on different issues than the General Elections.

 

The Congress will need to set its house in order. Although competing intra-party rivalries have always been part of Congress’ history, and it has won despite that, this time the situation may not be the same as there is a combative and confident BJP in opposition, which fights elections very aggressively and goes into the minute details. 

 

The Congress will also have to contend with the perception that the influential Dera Sacha Sauda may be supporting the BJP given the frequent paroles and furloughs the Dera head, Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim is getting. 

 

As of now, Haryana still looks like an open game, despite ten years of BJP being in power. There appears to be more possibility of a hung house with no clear majority for any party. Congress may be hoping to do better, but wishing away the BJP completely will be an exaggerated assumption.