The ruling Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab has launched an all-out “electoral war” in the battlefield of Ludhiana West assembly segment, where by-election became due after the tragic death of sitting AAP MLA Gurpreet Gogi. Godi died in the month of January reportedly in an accidental gunshot from his own revolver.
The Election Commission of India is yet to announce the schedule for the by-elections. However, the AAP has already announced its candidate Sanjeev Arora from here. Arora is the sitting Rajya Sabha member from Punjab.
There is a strong likelihood of Arora resigning his RS seat and party supremo Arvind Kejriwal replacing him. The AAP, however, has been evasive and vague about Kejriwal replacing Arora.
Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann and Kejriwal have been frequenting Ludhiana West. During the past one fortnight, the duo has visited the constituency twice. Last time the two spent three days and currently they are here to spend three days in the assembly segment.
The outcome of the Ludhiana West would have been quite inconsequential as the AAP already has a brute majority of 93 seats in 117-member Punjab Legislative Assembly. The result would normally make no difference. However, the AAP has turned it into a battle of prestige, providing the opposition a handle for no reason.
The AAP will have an uphill task in Ludhiana West. No doubt the ruling party always has an edge in the by-elections, given the fact that the entire official machinery remains at its bidding, the voter arithmetic of the 2024 General Elections does not favour the ruling party.
The AAP candidate came a poor third in the Ludhiana West assembly segment behind the BJP and the Congress. The party had won the seat in 2022 by a margin of about 8,000 votes.
There are quite a few odds against the ruling party. One, it has lost a considerable support of the voters as compared to 2022. There is a lot of anti-incumbency against the government. Besides, AAP candidate Sanjeev Arora is not an experienced politician at all, having joined politics in 2022 when he was elected to the Rajya Sabha on AAP ticket. He has no electoral experience to his credit.
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In all likelihood he will be pitched against Congress veteran Bharat Bhushan Ashu, two-time MLA from Ludhiana West and former minister. Ashu has risen from the ranks from being a councillor, then an MLA, then a minister and now the working president of the Punjab Congress.
The AAP realises that it is headed for a tough fight in the Ludhiana West assembly segment. That is the reason it has been trying to be ahead of its principal rival, the Congress both, in terms of announcing the candidate and launching the campaign, much ahead of the announcement of the by-elections.
Ludhiana West has a strong presence of the BJP also. Party candidate Ravneet Singh Bittu took a lead of about 15,000 votes from here in the 2024 General Elections. The BJP polled about 28,000 votes in the 2022 assembly elections, amidst a strong AAP wave.
The party remains an equal stakeholder in the by-elections, which makes it a triangular contest. This may provide some hope to the ruling AAP. However, recently senior BJP leader and Delhi minister, during a press conference in Chandigarh, appealed to the voters that they must ensure the defeat of the AAP candidate, no matter who wins.
This was seen as a clear indication to the party supporters to vote for the candidate who will be in a position to defeat the AAP. Sanjeev Arora, however, given his influential business background, does enjoy support in the BJP quarters as well. But, Ashu is no less familiar among the BJP supporters either.
A lot will depend on which candidate the BJP fields from here, as it does smell a chance of victory in a triangular contest.
For the ruling AAP, it should ideally not make much difference. But by creating a lot of hype, it is unnecessarily turning the election into a sort of a referendum on itself, when there is no guarantee that it may go in its favour.
Ludhiana West will be the first election after the party's drubbing in the Delhi assembly elections. That makes it more important as a victory can redeem the morale of the cadres. Conversely, it can have a demoralising impact also in case of a defeat, only because the AAP has created too much hype about the by-election, which it really did not need to do.
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