900-days-of-ukraine-russia-war-what-next

On February 24, 2021, the world, yet to completely recover from the ravages of the pandemic, watched in horror and disbelief as Russia invaded its neighbouring country Ukraine. The two countries, once tied together by the Soviet Union, have been at war for close to 29 months now. 

 

In a significant development, on Tuesday, August 6, Ukraine pressed on with a major offensive and caught Russia off-guard as an estimated 1000 Ukrainian troops entered 30 km into Russia. The Ukrainian troops moved from the Sumy Oblast region of north-east Ukraine and took over Kursk Oblast of Russia. The incursion combined intense artillery and drone attacks along with mechanized troops into the enemy territory.  To combat the incursion, Russia also moved extra tanks, artillery, and rocket systems to the southern Kursk region and imposed anti-terrorism measures. 

 

The situation escalated in an unfortunate manner. In what Russia claims to be a fight against an armoured cross-border assault by Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, a Russian missile struck a supermarket in the Ukrainian town of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, killing 14 people and injuring 43 others. President Volodymyr Zelensky took to X to condemn the attack. “Russian terrorists hit an ordinary supermarket and a post office. There are people under the rubble.” 

 

Both claim they’ve got the upper hand 

 

In the first such attempt by Ukraine, the Ukrainian forces posted a video showing them to be in control of the town near the border. Another video showed a convoy of about 15 burned-out Russian military trucks spaced out along a highway in Kursk, and some even seemed to contain bodies. Kyiv’s air force said that Ukrainian forces destroyed 53 out of 57 Russian attack drones, which included four north-Korean-made missiles. 

 

In a counter gesture, Russia’s Ministry of Defence also released its video claiming it was a drone destroying a Ukrainian tank. Claiming that Ukraine had lost up to 945 soldiers and 102 armoured vehicles in total, Russia’s ministry also said that they managed to suppress raid attempts by enemy units into the Kursk region. 

Is the war anywhere near an end? 

 

The head of the United Nations’s International Atomic Energy Agency urged both Russia and Ukraine to refrain from escalating the situation in the Kursk region considering its geographical proximity to a nuclear power station. Russia, with no intentions to resolve the conflict or end the war, is reportedly having dozens of its military personnel trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system. It is also waiting on a delivery of hundreds of satellite guide weapons for its war on Ukraine. 

 

What is Ukraine planning next? 

 

The latest incursion by Ukraine comes close to the development that Ukrainian pilots have finally started operating U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets. These advanced fighter jets had been long long-standing request of Kyiv. Meanwhile, the United States has announced a new $125 million package of aid for Ukraine, which also includes Stinger missiles, artillery ammunition, and anti-armour systems.

 

Zelensky called the package vital for Ukrainian forces to counter Russian assaults. War-torn for years now, Ukraine, is also in the process of streamlining its economy, having kicked off the formal creditor approval process of its offer to restructure $20bn of international bonds. Kyiv has been hinting its willingness to negotiate and amping up the counter-offensive. It is doing so to not have a lower hand at negotiations with Russia. 

 

Washington Post, quoted an unnamed advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky, as saying, “This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it’s all about.” However, last month in an interview, President Zelensky had said that there can’t be any direct negotiations between the two countries, as Russia-Ukraine will negotiate through a third party and suggested that the UN could play the role.