bjp-to-secure-over-300-seats-in-2024-says-poll-strategist-prashant-kishor

Political analyst Prashant Kishor has forecasted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to secure over 300 seats in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

 

Speaking to India Today TV, Kishor emphasised that there is no significant anger against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which will help the BJP maintain a strong position.

 

Kishor pointed out that while it is impossible for the BJP to achieve the 370 seats claimed by PM Modi, the party is expected to repeat its 2019 performance with a possible gain in seats. "From the day PM Modi claimed that the BJP would secure 370 seats and the NDA would surpass the 400 mark, I said this was not possible. This is all sloganeering to boost workers' morale. It is impossible for the BJP to get 370 seats, but it is also certain that the party will not fall below the 270 mark. I believe the BJP will manage to secure the same number of seats as it did in the previous Lok Sabha elections, which is 303 seats, or perhaps a little more," Kishor said.

 

Kishor explained that the BJP's strength lies in its stronghold regions. "First, look at where the BJP secured its 303 seats in the 2019 elections. Out of those 303 seats, 250 came from the North and West regions.

 

The key question is whether they are facing significant losses (50 or more seats) in these regions this time. In the East and South, the BJP currently holds around 50 seats in the Lok Sabha. In these regions, the BJP's vote share is believed to be significantly increasing.

 

So, cumulatively, the BJP's seat share in the East and South is expected to increase by 15–20 seats, while there is no significant loss in the North and West," Kishor explained.

 

He also noted the absence of widespread discontent against PM Modi. "Leaving aside the numbers game, let's consider when a government loses. It happens when there is significant anger among the people against a party or its leader.

 

Whether it's the BJP or PM Modi's 10 years of governance, there is certainly a large section of society that feels disappointed. However, we haven't heard from commentators on either side (government or opposition) that there is widespread anger against the Prime Minister. Therefore, the sentiment that Narendra Modi must be removed, regardless of who comes next, is not present," Kishor said.

 

Kishor's analysis indicates that the BJP's position remains robust, especially in its traditional strongholds. The anticipated increase in seats from the South and East regions further strengthens the party's outlook for the 2024 elections.

 

Despite challenges and some public disappointment, the absence of widespread anger against PM Modi suggests that the BJP is well-positioned to secure a significant number of seats.

 

As the political landscape evolves, Kishor's predictions provide insight into the possible outcomes of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. His analysis highlights the importance of regional dynamics and voter sentiment in shaping the results. With the elections approaching, the BJP's strategy and performance will be closely watched by analysts and the public alike.