jagan-will-lose-big-time-says-poll-strategist-prashant-kishor

Renowned political strategist Prashant Kishor has set off ripples in Andhra Pradesh political circles with his prediction that the ruling YSR Congress Party, headed by Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, will ‘lose big time’ in the upcoming assembly elections.

 

Over-dependence on freebies and caste-based polarisation would be the undoing of the chief minister at the hustings, Prashant said while participating in “Hyderabad Dialogues”, an initiative of “The New Indian Express” daily in Hyderabad.

 

Interestingly, Prashant was a poll strategist for the YSRCP and had played a key role in the party sweeping the 2019 elections when it bagged 151 seats in the 175-member assembly. He has since dissociated himself from the poll consultancy profession and is focusing on building a political career in his home state of Bihar through ‘Jan Suraaj Abhiyan’ initiative.

 

“I see this whole assumption that Jagan is too strong to be defeated does not have a valid ground. He is on a sticky wicket. He is going downhill... My gut is telling me that he is losing big. Not just losing… but losing big,” the ace strategist said when asked about the political trend in Andhra Pradesh.

 

“Jagan has made a mistake in putting all the eggs in one basket,” he remarked.

 

“It is a function of how he ran the state. Andhra would probably fall in the middle-income category. If you are not talking about capital creation and new infrastructure but only focusing on the distribution side in a middle-income state, you are taking a big strategic risk. His government has given more priority to giving doles and Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) even at the cost of incurring a lot of additional debt. This might work in a low-income state but in Andhra Pradesh, where urbanisation is more than 50 per cent, and when your government is seen only in terms of the free benefit you are giving to the masses, it may not. Because 50 per cent (of the population) are not even eligible and you are not even reaching them,” he said.

 

Prashant met the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu a few months back in Vijayawada, triggering speculation that the opposition party has roped him in for advising on poll strategies.

 

Prashant, however, clarified that he was in no way associated with the party.

 

Elaborating further on Andhra, Prashanth Kishor referred to Jagan’s portrayal of the coming elections as a class battle and felt it was not the right pitch. “You can talk about a class battle in Bihar or Jharkhand, but you can’t in Tamil Nadu, Telangana or AP. It can’t be based on DBT because youth look for jobs, not a thousand-rupees benefit. They are looking for more factories, better roads, medical and educational facilities. So, if I am an Andhraite, would I take pride in the hope that Vijayawada or Vizag is coming up as the future city? I will feel inferior to my counterparts in Chennai, Kochi or Hyderabad. It is not difficult to make a prediction that it is very difficult for Jagan to make a comeback.”

 

He cited another data point: that no politician has gone on to win three consecutive elections in southern states and, technically, no one has gone on to win and even complete two consecutive terms.

 

He said this explains something about the society. “A middle-income society looks for doles but its people are aspirational on a relative basis.”

 

At the same time, Prashant felt if the TDP wins, it could be more because of the work not done by Jagan and felt the YSRC chief, with the kind of mandate he secured in 2019 and his age, could have gone on to become one of the most powerful leaders in the south had he not boxed himself into the state and seen himself as a provider instead of meeting the aspirations of the people.